Barron’s Kynren has bottle for overdue victory

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Barron’s Kynren has bottle for overdue victory

Betting Ring


The Hugo Palmer-trained El Ghazwani powers home up the straight under Oisin Murphy to claim victory in yesterday’s ten-furlong handicap at Lingfield. Photo: John Walton/PA
The Hugo Palmer-trained El Ghazwani powers home up the straight under Oisin Murphy to claim victory in yesterday’s ten-furlong handicap at Lingfield. Photo: John Walton/PA

I read a story this week about an Australian man who won the lottery twice, having accidentally bought two tickets for the same draw, using identical numbers.

Another punter also had the numbers for the jackpot, which was $70 million, so instead of having to split the money 50/50 with the other person, the man gets to keep two-thirds of the prize as he has two of the three winning tickets.

While it wasn’t by accident, I ended up doubling my €100 stake on last week’s main bet, She Mite Bite, in the Grade Two Mares’ race at Newbury when I saw her price go out to 11/2. I thought it was cracking value, having backed her at 9/2 the evening before and, selfishly, I just had to go back to the well for some more and have a second bet.

When she loomed large two-out, she hit even-money in-running on Betfair and I began to think about all the nice things a €1,000 profit could bring, including a bottle of Amarone wine I’d seen down the off-licence for 50 quid. It’s a hell of a lot of money to spend to get merry – but it somehow seems quite reasonable when you’ve got ‘one-large’ coming your way.

However, I’m clearly not nearly as lucky the Australian and, just as She Mite Bite began to mount a serious challenge which would have been hard to repel, Nico de Boinville quickly pulled up Nicky Henderson’s mare, something seriously amiss.

Now, don’t get me wrong, you’ll never hear me complain about losing money when a horse is injured or killed, having owned a share in a mare before which broke her leg. I had to listen to heartless people whinge about doing their dough in the bookies, and certainly it wasn’t nice or compassionate as we dealt with the loss of our animal.

It seems that She Mite Bite may have picked up a pelvis injury when she over-stretched, and I’m still trying to find out news of her condition – although I heard she walked into the ambulance after, which is hopefully a good sign.

Anyway, the reality of it was that my one-grand profit was quickly turned into a €200 loss. When Cardsharp later lost at Kempton at the really short price of 4/7, I was about to throw in the towel and start buying lottery tickets instead.

But it was the football that saved the day, and Italy’s win to nil against Finland completed a nice double with Kupatana, which was returned at a cracking price of 2/1 in a four-horse race at Kelso, having traded at 11/8 the night before.

The Gibraltar-Ireland match was so boring it helped calm the nerves on a roller-coaster day but, by close of business, most of my losses were recovered and I was glad to settle down with herself for a pint of stout in the local, the Amorone now seeming very expensive again.

So battered but not broken, we go back to battle with the bookmakers today where the Flat action returns to Britain, and the 13/2 about Kynren to win the Unibet Lincoln Handicap (3.35 Doncaster) is my idea of a decent value bet.

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Rated 98, David Barron’s five-year-old has been going quite well in handicaps without actually winning, but he’s quite consistent and it feels like a matter of time before he lands a big prize around this rating.

He wasn’t disgraced when fifth of 20 to Sharja Bridge in the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot last time out in October off 1lb higher, and on their return, you’ll often see a big improvement in horses that were racing well before the winter break in handicaps.

Likely favourite Auxerre has strong claims and could be destined for bigger races than handicaps following three career wins from four races, but all the buzz about him means that bookmakers are taking no chances, and early odds of 3/1 look a little short in what is once again a competitive race to kick off the British Flat season.

Chalked

My biggest bet of the day will be on Matterhorn, which was chalked up at 7/4 yesterday evening for the Listed Matchbook Magnolia Stakes at Kempton (2.05).

Mark Johnston’s colt had buckets in hand when beating Executive Force to land a five-timer in handicaps at Kempton three weeks ago, and he’s been improving so much the assessor just hasn’t been able to keep up. He’s now racing at Listed level but I’m fairly sure we’ll see him holding his own in Group company this term.

Finally, consider backing Invisible Army in the Listed Unibet Cammidge Trophy Stakes (1.50 Doncaster). Expected to go off around 3/1, James Tate’s charge, now aged four, already has Group Three form in the book as a three-year-old, and hit 1/4 in-running in the Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock before finishing a nose-second to Sands of Mali.

It’s clear he has what it takes to win this Listed race, and he won last year on his seasonal debut, so those odds seem fairly generous. The biggest danger to the bet comes from Equilateral, a Charlie Hills colt which connections expect to improve.

 

Do the double

Soccer: When a match is widely described as ‘must-win’ for both sides, I always have a look at the odds of the draw as it’s regularly over-priced. Fans can become entrenched, and that may be reflected in the betting with the draw often neglected in close-cut affairs. Liverpool need to keep in the title race, and Spurs need a Champions League place – so tomorrow’s clash at Anfield could be close, making the draw attractive at 3/1.

Racing: Trained by John Gosden, Sucellus raced very greenly on his debut at Wolverhampton – but he deserves a lot of credit for finishing so strongly to win, having come from a long way back. He’ll improve again and was chalked up at 15/8 early doors for the Matchbook Betting Exchange EBF Novice Stakes at Kempton (1.55), which is not a bad price in a seven-runner race.

  • Last week’s double was successful at an overall price of 4/1

 

Each-way

Al Jellaby, Sod’s Law, Exec Chef and Gulf Of Poets are just some of the names which are very hard to rule out in the Unibet Spring Mile Handicap at Doncaster (2.25), but at 12/1 or thereabouts, I’m going to take a chance each-way on Calvados Spirit, which I backed last week in the Irish Lincolnshire at Naas. On that occasion, I expressed concern about the draw, but I thought he’d overcome it. I was wrong and he raced wide with not much chance of finishing in the frame. That shouldn’t be a problem here, and although he’s yet to win for Richard Fahey’s yard, he’s gone close around this mark, and I don’t think he was given too hard a time at Naas.

 

Today’s selections

1.35 Kempton:  Sucellus

1.50 Doncaster:  Invisible Army

2.05 Kempton:  Matterhorn

2.25 Doncaster:  Calvados Spirit (e/w)

3.0 Doncaster:  Sharja Bridge

3.35 Doncaster:  Kynren

Irish Independent


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